What arrives

Figures that move money. The floor measure sets every person’s credit. The care gap sizes commission funds. Sustainable output sets how much new money is issued. Readiness states guide pace. Each figure becomes worth bending the moment money follows it (when a measure becomes a target).

What must exist first

The estimator pool: several independent estimators for every figure that carries money.

  1. Many estimators, a random draw. Seven drawn from the pool each cycle, never fewer than five, and the median used.
  2. No one owns the set. One counted estimator per group under common ownership; no funder above a fifth; estimators that move together count as one.
  3. Paid for the work, never for agreement. A base fee and a reward for accuracy verified later.
  4. A separate accreditor that judges method only, never results.
  5. The guarantee. No paid figure is ever set by a single estimator, protected at the constitutional level.

Why it is cheaper first

A single official figure, once established, is hard to dislodge. Its staff, its methods, and every contract that cites it defend it. A pool set up while the figures are still advisory costs little and builds a record. A pool set up after money depends on one figure has to fight the people who benefit from that figure’s errors.

Readiness states

State What it looks like
Started two or more independent bodies publishing the same figure; an accreditor founded
In place the random draw and median used for every paid figure
Tested an estimator found bending a figure, removed, and the median holding

What to start now

Fund independent estimates beside existing official figures, so that a second number already exists. Publish methods. Begin with the floor measure for a few regions, where several estimates can be compared before any money follows.

Where it is worked out